Every CD guide we’ve published this year, including the one we ran ahead of the June FOMC meeting, was built on the same assumption: the Fed was done hiking, probably cutting again, and the only real question was how fast. The July 28–29 meeting minutes, released August 19, blew a hole in that assumption. Three FOMC members didn’t just dissent from the Fed’s fifth straight hold — they dissented in favor of raising rates. That’s a different conversation than the one we had in June, and it changes what “locking in a CD rate” actually means right now.

This isn’t a small technical footnote. A rate-cut expectation and a rate-hike expectation point CD strategy in opposite directions. We got the first one wrong, or at least incomplete, and it’s worth saying so plainly before walking through what’s actually changed.

Quick Verdict

What happened	Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% for a 5th straight meeting on July 29; 3 of 12 members dissented in favor of a 25 bps hike — the most dissents at one meeting since 2016
Next decision	FOMC meets September 16
Hike odds trajectory	~67% (Jul 31) → ~44% (Aug 7, after a weak jobs report) → back up near 60% by late August, per CME FedWatch-based reporting
Top CD rates now	Up to 4.50% APY on select 3-year terms, 4.40% on 1-year — higher than the ~4.30% ceiling we saw in June
What changed the calculus	A rate-cut CD strategy (lock in before it drops) and a rate-hike CD strategy (don’t lock in before it rises) are opposites. The market’s genuinely split on which one applies right now
What to actually do	Split the difference — short terms or rate-hedge CD features, not a blind multi-year lock, until Sept. 16 resolves some of this

What Actually Changed Since June

Rewind to June: three rate cuts had already landed in late 2025, CD rates had slid from above 5% down into the 4.00–4.30% range, and every signal pointed toward more of the same. Locking in a CD before another cut made obvious sense. That’s the post we wrote.

Then the ground shifted. At the July meeting, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari, and Dallas’s Lorie Logan all dissented — not to hold, which is what happened, but to hike by a quarter point. Hammack pointed to inflation that’s stayed stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target with businesses reporting broadening, not fading, pricing pressure. Kashkari argued for incremental tightening now rather than a sharper response later. Logan made essentially the same case: a small move today beats a bigger one forced by circumstances in a few months.

Three dissents on one committee is rare. It’s the most since 2016, according to reporting on the vote. And it wasn’t a fringe read — the July minutes, released August 19, showed a broader group of officials flagging the case for a hike if inflation doesn’t cool, not just the three who formally dissented.

None of that guarantees a hike on September 16. But it’s the exact opposite signal from what shaped every CD post we wrote earlier this year, and pretending otherwise would be dishonest.

Will the Fed Raise Rates in September 2026?

Nobody knows yet, including the futures market — which is the point. Here’s what’s actually driving the uncertainty, in order:

1. The jobs data argues for holding or cutting. July’s employment report showed the economy shedding jobs instead of adding them, and CME FedWatch-derived hike odds reportedly fell from roughly two-thirds right after the July meeting to under half within a week of that report.
2. Inflation and energy prices argue for hiking. Persistent above-target inflation, plus lingering pressure from an earlier oil price spike, is the case Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan made in July — and it hasn’t gone away just because one jobs report came in weak.
3. The August CPI print, due before September 16, is the next real swing factor. The Fed gets that number before it has to decide, which is why odds have been moving on practically every data release rather than settling into a clear trend.
4. Odds have swung from roughly two-thirds down to under half and back up toward 60% within a single month. That volatility is itself the story — this isn’t a market quietly pricing in a foregone conclusion either direction.

The honest framing: rate-hike odds for September have been genuinely unstable through August, not gradually converging. Anyone telling you with confidence which way the Fed goes on the 16th is guessing, including us.

CD Rates Already Reflect the New Uncertainty

Banks don’t wait for the FOMC to act before repricing. They move ahead of expected outcomes, and this time the expected outcome shifted from “lower” to “genuinely unclear, maybe higher.”

The result: CD rates that were topping out around 4.30% APY when we checked in June are now reaching as high as 4.50% APY on select 3-year terms and 4.40% on 1-year terms, with 6-month CDs around 4.15% and 3-month terms near 3.95%. That’s the opposite direction from what a rate-cut environment should produce. If the Fed were still on the cutting path we described in June, banks would be trimming CD offers, not raising them.

This is also a very different situation than what’s happening with variable-rate savings. Our savings rates piece from earlier this month tracked top HYSA rates drifting down toward 4.15%–4.21% even as CD rates climbed — banks are hedging both directions at once, protecting themselves on the liquid side while competing harder for money that’s willing to lock up. If you’re deciding between the two right now, that gap is worth sitting with: HYSAs are pricing for a possible cut, CDs are pricing for a possible hike, and both bets are being made by the same banks in the same week.

Why This Flips the Lock-In Math

In June, the case for a CD was simple: rates were falling, so locking in today’s number protected you from tomorrow’s lower one. That logic assumed the direction of travel was down.

If the Fed is now roughly a coin flip on hiking, the calculus gets genuinely more complicated. Lock in a 12-month CD at 4.40% today, and if the Fed hikes on September 16 and CD rates climb further into the fall, you’re stuck at 4.40% while new CDs pay more. That’s not a hypothetical — it’s exactly the scenario that made Ally’s Raise Your Rate CD worth a mention back in June, and it’s more relevant now than it was then. That product lets you bump your rate once or twice during the term if Ally’s CD rates rise — which means you’re not fully exposed if September brings a hike instead of a cut.

The mirror case still exists too: if the Fed holds again on September 16, or if the August CPI print undercuts the hawkish case, CD rates could plateau or even soften as the hike odds recede. In that world, locking in today’s 4.40%–4.50% is exactly the right move, for exactly the reason we gave in June.

The difference between June and now isn’t that CDs got worse. It’s that the direction is no longer obvious, and a strategy built on “rates are definitely falling” doesn’t hold up when rates might not be.

So Should You Lock In a CD Right Now?

Depends on how much certainty you need and how long you can go without the money.

If you want protection without full commitment: a 6- to 9-month CD locks in today’s 3.95%–4.15% range and matures on the other side of the September 16 decision, giving you a second look once the hike-or-hold question actually resolves. This is close to what we recommended in June, just with a shorter leash given the added uncertainty.

If you want a longer lock but hate the idea of missing a hike: look specifically for a rate-bump feature like Ally’s Raise Your Rate CDs. You give up a small amount of headline yield for the ability to capture a rate increase mid-term — a reasonable trade when the Fed’s own committee can’t agree on direction.

If you’d rather stay fully liquid until the picture clears: a high-yield savings account still pays close to what a short CD pays, with none of the lock-up. The tradeoff, as always, is that the bank can cut your rate the moment sentiment shifts back toward easing. Our high-yield savings roundup covers where the top rates sit right now.

If you’re building a CD ladder: this is actually a decent environment for it. Staggering terms — some maturing before September 16, some after, some further out — means you’re never fully exposed to guessing the Fed’s next move correctly. The automate-savings guide covers the mechanics of setting up scheduled transfers that make a ladder easier to maintain without manually shuffling money every few weeks.

Who Should Skip the CD Decision Entirely

None of this matters much if the fundamentals aren’t in place first.

If you don’t have an emergency fund yet, a CD — any term, any rate — is the wrong next move. Locked money can’t cover a surprise expense. Build the liquid cushion first; see the first $1,000 emergency fund guide for where to start.

If you’re carrying high-interest debt, a 4.40% CD return doesn’t offset a 22%+ APR credit card balance. That math doesn’t change no matter what the Fed does on September 16. Pay the card.

And if this is money you genuinely won’t need for three or more years, a CD’s guaranteed-but-capped return may not be the right tool regardless of which way rates move next month. Our best IRA apps guide covers tax-advantaged options built for that longer horizon.

The Bottom Line

We told readers in June to lock in CD rates because cuts were coming. Three FOMC dissents, a set of minutes flagging real hike risk, and CD rates that have actually climbed since then are reason enough to say the setup has changed. The honest answer for September 16 isn’t “lock in everything” or “wait for certainty” — it’s that certainty isn’t available right now, on either side. Split terms, look for rate-hedge features if you’re going longer, and don’t let a guide you read in June keep steering a decision that the market itself hasn’t settled.

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FOMC vote and dissent details from the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting minutes and reporting by Yahoo Finance. Rate-odds trajectory drawn from CME FedWatch-based reporting including The Motley Fool’s August 12 coverage and CBS News’s late-August CD rate roundup. CD rate figures current as of the CBS News report cited above; rates change frequently and will likely shift again around the September 16 FOMC decision. Verify current APYs before opening any account.