Here’s a bad coincidence: the same week most state tax-free weekends hit, laptops got meaningfully more expensive for a reason that has nothing to do with tariffs. CNBC reported June 26 that a memory chip shortage (driven by AI data centers buying up DRAM and NAND at a pace consumer electronics manufacturers can’t compete with) is pushing PC and phone prices up across the board, with shipments expected to shrink because of it. Not “might.” Is.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because we covered a different price threat to back-to-school shopping back in June: tariff fears pushing 51% of families to shop early. This is not that story. Tariffs are a policy decision that could theoretically reverse. The memory chip shortage is a supply-and-demand problem, and Lenovo told a room full of people at a Germany semiconductor conference in June that prices “never” go back to where they were before late 2025. Two different price pressures, stacked on top of each other, landing on the same shopping season.

And this week specifically matters because most state back-to-school sales tax holidays are running right now: Texas, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, South Carolina, and Oklahoma from August 7–9; Illinois through August 16; Massachusetts August 8–9. If you’re buying a laptop for a kid heading back to school, you’re deciding right now whether a live discount window offsets a price base that’s already climbed.

Quick Take

What’s driving it	AI data-center demand for DRAM/NAND has memory chip prices up roughly 80–90% in Q1 2026 vs. Q4 2025, per Counterpoint Research
What it costs you	OEM list-price hikes of 15–20%, with high-end configurations up to 30%, across Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS
Market-wide effect	Global PC shipments projected to fall 10.4% in 2026; PC prices projected up 17% vs. 2025, per Gartner
The live discount window	Most state back-to-school sales tax holidays run Aug 7–16, 2026; check your state below
Is this the tariff story?	No. Different cause, same timing. Tariffs are policy; this is a chip supply shortage Lenovo says won’t reverse

What’s Actually Driving This

The memory chip shortage is a straightforward supply problem: AI data centers need enormous amounts of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory to train and run models, and chipmakers are prioritizing those contracts over consumer electronics. Less memory supply for laptops and phones, at the exact moment demand hasn’t dropped, means one thing: higher prices, passed straight from chipmaker to OEM to your checkout screen.

Counterpoint Research puts memory prices up roughly 80–90% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025, with further increases forecast through Q2 as long-term supply contracts keep reshaping how DRAM gets priced. That’s not a one-quarter blip. It’s a structural shift in what memory costs, and laptops need memory in every configuration. There’s no cheap-out option that skips DRAM entirely.

Lenovo’s CFO told Notebookcheck the company built inventory up 50% specifically to ride out the shortage, and it’s raising prices anyway, because the stockpile buys time, not immunity. At an industry conference in June, Lenovo went further, presenting data showing DRAM and NAND pricing climbing since late 2025 with no return to pre-2025 levels in sight. When a manufacturer that stockpiled half a year of extra inventory still can’t hold the line on price, that’s a signal the shortage isn’t a short-term supply hiccup to wait out.

How Much More Is a Laptop Actually Costing?

Real numbers, not vague “prices are up” hand-waving: Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS have all confirmed list-price increases in the 15–20% range, with high-end configurations climbing as much as 30%. Dell specifically raised commercial PC prices 10–30% depending on the model, according to supply-chain outlet TrendForce. At the market level, Gartner projects global PC shipments falling 10.4% in 2026 and average PC prices climbing 17% year over year; smartphones aren’t spared either, down 8.4% in shipments with prices up 13%.

Put that against real dollars. A $700 back-to-school laptop (the kind we flagged as a typical price point in our June back-to-school budgeting guide) at a 20% increase runs $840. At 30%, on a higher-end configuration, that’s $910. That’s before whatever the tariff conversation adds on top, and it’s happening on a timeline where the worst of the Q1 contract pricing is landing on shelves right now, during back-to-school and again ahead of the holidays.

Which States Have a Back-to-School Sales Tax Holiday This Week?

1. Texas, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, South Carolina, Oklahoma: August 7–9, 2026. All six cover clothing, footwear, and school supplies, but computers are hit or miss: Missouri exempts computers up to $1,500, South Carolina exempts computers with no price cap at all, and Oklahoma’s back-to-school holiday — the state’s only sales tax holiday of the year — skips computers entirely. Texas, Ohio, and Virginia don’t exempt laptops in this holiday — clothing and supplies only.
2. Illinois: August 7–16, 2026, the longest window this year, but it’s clothing and footwear under $125 plus school supplies. Computers and other electronics are explicitly excluded.
3. Massachusetts: August 8–9, 2026, a broad exemption that includes most retail goods, not just school-specific items.
4. Maryland: August 9–15, 2026, focused on clothing and footwear under $100 per item.
5. Connecticut: August 16–22, 2026, running slightly later than most of the country.

Check your state’s revenue department before you shop. Price caps and eligible categories vary, and a laptop that qualifies in one state may be excluded (or capped at a dollar amount that doesn’t cover a real machine) in another.

Is This the Same Story as the Tariff-Driven Price Fears From June?

No, and the distinction matters for how you should think about timing. Our June back-to-school guide covered 51% of families shopping early specifically because of tariff fears, a policy-driven price risk that could, in theory, ease if trade terms change. The memory chip shortage is different. It’s AI data centers competing with consumer electronics for a finite chip supply, and Lenovo’s own conference presentation says the industry doesn’t expect DRAM and NAND pricing to revert to pre-2025 levels at all. Tariffs are a lever a government could pull. A structural chip shortage tied to AI infrastructure buildout is not something a policy announcement fixes by October.

Both pressures are real. Both are hitting the same back-to-school laptops. But only one of them comes with a plausible “maybe it reverses” story, and it isn’t this one.

Should You Buy This Week or Wait?

If you need a laptop for the semester that starts in the next few weeks, the math mostly favors buying now, inside the tax-free window, rather than waiting for a hypothetical better price later. Memory chip pricing is forecast to keep climbing through Q2, not settle. OEMs have already told the market this isn’t temporary. Waiting for “back to normal” pricing is waiting for something Lenovo itself says isn’t coming.

That said, a sales tax exemption saves you the tax rate (typically 6–8% depending on the state), not the 15–30% the memory shortage already added. It softens the hit. It doesn’t undo it. Don’t let “it’s tax-free this weekend” talk you into a $1,200 laptop a $700 one would have handled, just because the tax line reads $0.

How to Actually Save If You Need One Now

• Buy during your state’s window, but check the item cap first. Several states exempt computers only up to a specific price (often $1,000–$1,500). A laptop above that cap pays full tax regardless of the holiday.
• Compare list price against 90-day price history, not just the sticker. Our Prime Day fake-deals guide covers the price-tracking tools that catch inflate-then-discount pricing. The same tactic works year-round, not just during Amazon’s sale events.
• Set the total before you shop. If you’re building a back-to-school budget from scratch, the budgeting apps we covered in June still apply: a rising laptop line item is exactly the kind of surprise a pre-funded category absorbs better than an unplanned one.
• If financing is on the table, compare terms before checkout, not at the register. A higher laptop price makes a 0% buy-now-pay-later offer more tempting; our Klarna vs. Affirm comparison breaks down which terms are actually interest-free and which aren’t.
• Consider last year’s model. Chip shortages hit new SKUs hardest because manufacturers are pricing in current contract costs. Refurbished or previous-generation laptops were built when memory was cheaper, and the price often reflects that.

Who Should Wait

If your laptop need isn’t urgent (a college student who doesn’t start until late September, or a family replacing a machine that still works), there’s a case for holding off past this specific week. Prices aren’t likely to drop, but a rushed purchase inside a sales-tax deadline isn’t the same as a good purchase. If the tax savings and the timing don’t actually line up with a machine you’d choose anyway, the discount isn’t worth chasing.

What No Sales Tax Holiday Fixes

A tax-free weekend removes one line item from the receipt. It doesn’t touch the 15–30% the memory shortage already built into the list price, and it doesn’t change the fact that shipments are down and OEMs are managing scarcity, not abundance. Counterpoint and Gartner are both projecting this gets worse before it gets better in 2026: the worst of the Q1 contract pricing is landing on exactly the devices sitting on back-to-school and holiday shelves right now.

Buy what you need. Use the tax holiday if your state has one this week. But go in knowing the discount is a few percentage points against a base price that’s already up by a lot more than that.

The Bottom Line

Laptop prices are up for a real, structural reason: AI data-center demand has made memory chips scarce, and manufacturers who stockpiled half a year of extra supply are still raising prices. That’s landing on top of, not instead of, the tariff-driven price fears from earlier this summer. If you need a laptop now, most state tax-free weekends run through August 16 and are worth using. Just don’t mistake a sales tax exemption for a discount big enough to undo what the chip shortage already added.

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Pricing and shipment data from CNBC, Counterpoint Research, Gartner, Notebookcheck, and TrendForce. Sales tax holiday dates confirmed via ABC News/GMA. Verify your state’s specific rules and item caps before shopping — they vary and change year to year.